We felt it was only appropriate for us to discuss in this month's HigherEd Careers Chats the indicators that help employers and candidates make an honest evaluation of the employment environment. We are pleased to offer a panel of three outstanding experts with their own unique perspectives - Andy Brantley of CUPA-HR, Employment Researcher Bruce Steinberg, and HigherEdJobs.com's John Ikenberry.
After reading, we invite you to continue the discussion in our LinkedIn group or follow HigherEd Careers on Twitter.
What Overall Employment Indicators Matter for Higher Education
with Bruce Steinberg, Employment ResearcherHibel: You offer an excellent chart on your website describing three categories of employment statistics with more than a dozen individual indicators.1 What do you feel are the most important of these indicators and why are they so?
Steinberg: Actually, I would categorize them as three different categories of economic indicators. One looks at employment, the other looks at the economy and economic trends, and the third looks at the housing sector since that is the industry that sort of got us into the current mess. Employment is important because it affects everyone's life and can be a proxy to the overall economy. If people are getting jobs and working -- and wages are growing -- then things are good. It also gives people an idea of future employment and job trends so they are able to stay relevant in the job market. The general economic indicators present a longer view of the overall health of the economy. And, as I just said, I look at the housing sector since its collapse brought down much of the rest of the economy -- sort of a domino effect. With that said, no one indicator is more important than another -- they must be looked at in unison to get a full picture.
Hibel: A byproduct of the technology seems to be information. Without making a judgment about whether there is too much numerical information, can you describe why you feel the pillars of economic indicators can provide useful information to people who are concerned about their jobs?
Steinberg: They give people an idea of the general direction "things" are heading, whether that thing is their employment prospects, or perhaps how the sector or industry in which they may specialize is doing. And many of the indicators and associated data are available on a local basis. After all, the economy is not one single monolith with everything, everywhere moving in the same direction together. They help people plan their career and own financial health by paying attention to the economic and employment indicators that affect them.
Hibel: Recently, financial markets seem to be extremely sensitive to the message that economic indicators offer.2 How do you feel employers and the staffing industry look and react at employment indicators? Are their decisions as volatile?
Steinberg: Employers, business owners, etc. are always wary if the trends they are seeing in their "universe," which would be their own business for employers, are temporary or part of a bigger trend. They don't want to make decisions based on only what they are seeing so they look at bigger trends, which are what economic and employment indicators really are when you think about it. It's important to pay attention to the overall trends, but don't lose sight of your own universe. I think that when things are good locally but bad universally, business owners tend NOT to believe the bigger trend and unfortunately make strategic decisions based on their own experience that could hurt them. On the other hand, when things are bad locally, but the bigger trend is good, business owners / employers need to look at their business carefully and figure out why they are not performing up to the larger trend.
Hibel: In April, unemployment hit 8.9% or 13.7 million people.3 It was the seventh straight month that it has hit a ten year high.4 What would you need to see from other indicators that would lead you to believe that unemployment may be on its way to recovery?
Steinberg: Keeping in mind that the portion of the workforce that is unemployed is quite different than the number of jobs, which also has been declining, unemployment will begin to recover when employers start to create more jobs than they are eliminating. Recently, we have seen employers not eliminating as many jobs as they had been earlier in the year and this is good, but not great. They are still eliminating jobs, but at a slower pace. Also, keep in mind that although the number of new jobs is in the minus column, that does not mean employers are not hiring -- it only means that they are eliminating more jobs than the number of new jobs for which they are hiring. For example, in March private employers hired about 3.9 million people, but separated 4.5 million so the net effect is not good. Also, they had 2.4 million openings, so all is not completely bad.
Hibel: When a member of the academic community is reading the news on employment and broad economic indicators, which ones would be the most relevant to their industry?
Steinberg: I think that general job trends -- employers are hiring more workers than they are separating -- in sectors / industries relevant to their area of study is very important. To be able to know what the employment and financial health is of the areas outside academia that they are educating students about would be most helpful to make strategic plans about staffing and the allocation of resources. In this manner, they are providing the educational grounding for the next generation of workers and professionals in sectors / industries that will lead the next economic cycle.
Hibel: In your experience, what do you feel is the best way for people to plan for and see recovery in these indicators?
Steinberg: First, it's important to realize that very few indicators move in a consistent pattern -that is why many experts say that before the recovery actually takes hold, the indicators will be "bumping along the bottom." Keep in mind that one month (or a single datapoint) do not make a trend. Any change should be evaluated while looking at the previous trend. Things will go up and down for some time before growth returns to the economy. Be careful not to make "big bets" on a single turn of a squiggly trend line. That would be risky, but then again, some people can be very successful at spotting the trend early. It's important to understand WHY the indicator has changed.
How to Get Meaning from the Merger of the Overall and HigherEdJobs.com Indicators
with John Ikenberry, President and Co-Founder, HigherEdJobs.comHibel: HigherEdJobs.com recently released its first quarterly Higher Education Employment Report.5 What do you hope the report can offer to the academic community?
Ikenberry: Our goal was to give college faculty, administrators, and executives a clearer picture of what's really going on with higher education employment. People tend to have a good sense for what's going on at their particular institutions, and that's important. But, it's also helpful to see national trends. With this particular report, we found that the number of jobs in higher education has been stable over the last 18 months despite the significant drop off in overall US employment. My guess is that will come as a surprise to at least a few people in academia.
Hibel: Can you explain the data that the report includes and the process of how the report was formed?
Ikenberry: We looked at data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics as well as posting data from our own customers. We've been around long enough (13 years) that we have some pretty interesting data. For one of the findings, we looked at posting data from U.S. colleges and universities that had been continuous subscribers to our unlimited posting plan since at least January 1, 2005. That turned out to be a group of 544 institutions - a very reliable data set.
Hibel: Can you share your thoughts about the major findings of the report (stable higher education employment, fewer open positions, more faculty and part-time hiring) and their impact on higher education today?
Ikenberry: As I look at the data, I think academia is faring much better than the rest of the U.S. economy. However, it's not all roses for the ivy towers. Just like many American families, colleges and universities seem to be looking very carefully at every dollar they spend. Our posting data show a significant decrease in advertised job postings, higher ratios of faculty job postings, and increasing ratios of part-time positions. When you look at all those factors together, it says to me that institutions are trying to become as efficient as possible with their payroll dollars. Whether this contraction is going too far, I can't say. But, it is certainly forcing institutions to seriously think about their missions and make the tough decisions that were easier to postpone during greener times.
Hibel: When you combine the findings of the report and the state of the general economic indicators, how should job seekers at colleges and universities refine their searches to maximize their chances for success?
Ikenberry: I think the first thing to realize is that competition for open positions is tougher than ever. There are fewer job openings out there, yet traffic to our site is at record highs. For job seekers, I think that means paying particular attention to your resume/cv, cover letter, and networking as best you can. Of course, we give job seekers the same advice during other times as well. But, it is particularly important now when employers are looking for reasons to exclude, not include, candidates from consideration. Furthermore, job seekers may want to consider working for institutions they would have previously overlooked. Not everyone has to work at a research one university to be happy.
Hibel: I have read many stories about the real strain this economy has placed on job seekers.6 What can a higher education job seeker take away from this report that might make them more confident about their job search prospects?
Ikenberry: From a psychological perspective, there may be some comfort in knowing "it's not me." There are fewer jobs out there in academia now. So, don't take it personally if you're having trouble finding a job. Also, if you're looking for a faculty position, the news is a bit better. Institutions seem to be trimming more from the administrative ranks than from the faculty. And, no matter what, you have to have faith that persistence pays off. Looking for a job can sometimes be a job in itself. We've tried to make the process as easy as we can. But, it still takes persistence. Fortunately, that's something each of us can control.
Hibel: If you were looking for a job right now, what statistics would you tend to follow?
Ikenberry: While we often talk about higher education as a single job market, in reality it is made up of many sub markets. On HigherEdJobs.com, we classify jobs into over 200 job categories. So, if I were looking for a job, I'd be most interested in the market for job openings in my particular area. But, no matter what those trends and statistics may say, you still have to make the best of the situation.
What Can Be Learned From Employment Statistics to Further Careers
with Andy Brantley, President and CEO, College and University Professional Association for Human Resources (CUPA-HR)Hibel: Your organization, the College and University Professional Association for Human Resources (CUPA-HR), is the eminent professional association for higher ed human resource professionals. The February pulse survey of the impact of the economic crisis on staffing indicated that about 30 percent across the board hiring freezes and there are very few actual layoffs.7 Based on this survey and what you have seen in the two months since it was taken, how do you feel filling open positions will be affected by new budgets opening up for the new fiscal year on July 1?
Brantley: We definitely think that the next couple of months will be very telling as institutions receive their 09-10 budgets. We do anticipate that the hiring slowdown that we have seen during the last few months will continue.
Hibel: How are hiring freezes and delays in hiring affecting the higher education community?
Brantley: Institutions are having to make some very difficult decisions regarding staffing and compensation. My hope is that institutions are making strategic decisions regarding programs and services instead of making across the board cuts that could negatively impact all academic programs and other services provided by the institution. It is vitally important that institution leaders constantly communicate to the campus community. How decisions are made and how institution leaders interact with the campus community will definitely impact employee retention once the economic crisis ends.
Hibel: What employment statistics does CUPA-HR regularly track to assist the academic community?
Brantley: It is very important that we take time to evaluate what is occurring with the higher ed workforce. During the next few months, CUPA-HR will gather data from institutions regarding Hiring, Turnover, Compensation and Classification trends, and Training & Organizational Development trends. Campus leaders need this data to more fully understand how their workforce is changing and transitioning during these difficult economic times.
Hibel: What statistics would you suggest job seekers follow and what would you suggest they ignore?
Brantley: Higher ed job seekers should definitely try to find data regarding the financial stability of the institution. Are there things in the local and/or regional media that indicate that the institution is viable for the long-term? All endowments have been impacted, but does the institution seem to have a relatively strong endowment? I would also suggest that job seekers look at the websites for the academic or administrative department in which he or she would like to work. Is there any information to indicate recent cuts or additions to this department?
Hibel: What is your best advice to a higher education professional looking to further his or her career today?
Brantley: Those looking to further their higher ed career should be committed to constant learning. If you would prefer to seek a new position, but prefer to stay put for the short-term, invest time and effort into learning new skills and abilities--on the job and outside of the job. The things we do every day to enhance our skills and abilities definitely impacts our marketability now and in the future. There are some great opportunities available, so now could actually be a great time to find that next career opportunity. Job seekers should be focused on their true career aspirations and apply for positions that really match their short and long-term career goals.
